As the world began to gather for COP30 in Belém, Brazil last week, the stakes could not have been higher. The two-week summit convenes against a backdrop of an intensifying climate crisis and mounting frustration over the slow pace of progress.
The first week opened dramatically, marked by heavy rain and clashes between security guards and protesters who stormed the conference centre late on Tuesday. Both indigenous and non-indigenous communities in Brazil have voiced anger over the vast resources being channelled into hosting the event when, they argue, funds are urgently needed for education, healthcare and forest protection.
A conspicuous lack of participation by heads of state has dampened early optimism. Fewer than 60 leaders registered for COP30, down from more than 80 at COP29 in Baku and over 150 in Dubai the previous year. That said, analysis by Carbon Brief and the UNFCCC shows that several countries have sent record-high delegations, with Brazil fielding the largest. Many emerging economies have expanded their presence, reflecting both their growing vulnerability to climate impacts and their increasing influence in negotiations.
The opening sessions have already exposed the widening gap between ambition and action. Yet amid the rhetoric, there are concrete signs of momentum. The question now is whether COP30 can transform pledges into real delivery. Below are six key themes mapping where the summit is headed, what’s at stake and where potential deal-breakers may emerge.
AI in the fight against climate change
Technology has emerged as the defining force of the summit’s first week. The AI Climate Institute was launched, a new initiative focused on equipping developing nations with the AI skills and capabilities needed to strengthen their response to climate change.
One standout innovation highlighted at the summit came from Lao People’s Democratic Republic, where researcher, Alisa Luangrath, developed an AI-powered irrigation system in Savannakhet Province, a region hit hard by water shortages and climate stress.
But as AI use expands, so does concern over its environmental footprint. The Green Digital Action Hub (GDA Hub) was unveiled with the aim of coordinating global efforts to cut emissions and accelerate the adoption of sustainable digital solutions. Conceived as a central repository of data, expertise and practical tools, the hub is intended to help countries develop and implement green digital strategies while ensuring equitable access to sustainable technologies.
Emissions and energy transition
Despite significant advances in renewable energy, the global reliance on fossil fuels remains stubbornly high. As of 2025, oil, gas and coal still supply roughly 82% of the world’s energy demand.
At the summit, nineteen countries signed a pledge to scale up the use of sustainable fuels – including hydrogen-based alternatives – by at least fourfold by 2035 compared with 2024 levels. Signatories to the “Belém Commitment for Sustainable Fuels (Belém 4x)” include India, Canada and the Netherlands, as well as Japan and Italy, which co-sponsored the initiative with Brazil.
The European Union (EU), however, declined to join. The bloc has consistently opposed the use of sugarcane, corn and ethanol as fuel feedstocks, arguing that these crops drive deforestation and undermine food security.
Meanwhile, many major emitters continue to lag. Fewer than 30 countries have submitted updated climate pledges aligned with the 1.5°C target. Without credible pathways to phase out coal and oil, COP30 risks being remembered as a missed pivot point, not a turning point.
Biodiversity controversy
Located on the outskirts of the Amazon rainforest, this year’s COP places biodiversity at its centre. Brazil has pledged to end illegal deforestation by 2030, supported by its Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF), which aims to raise $125bn (£95bn) to help local communities safeguard remaining forest areas. If fully realised, the TFFF would become one of the first major finance mechanisms explicitly tied to nature-based carbon mitigation.
But enforcement remains the real test. Forest-loss rates are still substantial and Brazil’s own oil exploration activities near the Amazon cast doubt on the credibility of its flagship initiative. Just weeks before the conference, the state-run oil giant Petrobras received government approval to conduct exploratory drilling close to the rainforest.
While several countries have made early contributions to the TFFF, securing wider support will be challenging at a time when many governments are facing fiscal pressures and cutting aid budgets. The UK government has said it will not commit public funds, though it may provide direct contributions instead. For now, the prospects for a fully operational TFFF remain uncertain as negotiations continue.
Climate finance
As the costs and risks of global warming intensify, the debate over how to fund the transition to clean energy has grown increasingly fraught.
At COP30, parties agreed to raise at least $300bn (£277bn) per year by 2035 and to mobilise up to $1.3tn (£910bn) annually from combined public and private sources. Several countries, including India, have urged developed nations to provide finance that is “equitable, predictable and concessional.”
Yet without a robust pipeline of investible projects, particularly in emerging economies, many of these financial commitments risk remaining symbolic rather than transformative.
Attention now turns to the Baku-to-Belém Roadmap, which aims to chart a path for raising climate investment. The new document, published ahead of the climate talks, it not designed to create new financing schemes or mechanisms. Instead, the roadmap says it provides a “coherent reference framework on existing initiatives, concepts and leverage points to facilitate all actors coming together to scale up climate finance in the short to medium term”.
Improving life in a warming world
A criticism often levelled at the climate community is that it focuses too much on near-term emissions goals, diverting resources away from the people and communities who are negatively impacted by extreme weather. Part of the discussions at COP30, however, were focused on preventing human suffering, particularly for those in the toughest conditions who live in the world’s poorest countries.
At the Agricultural Innovation Showcase, new commitments were announced to advance agricultural innovation and climate-resilient food systems, including $1.45bn (£1.1bn) from the Gates Foundation to expand access to innovations that help farmers across sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia adapt to extreme weather and $30m (£22.7m) raised by the Global Methane Hub to cut methane emissions from rice cultivation.
Democratising COP
The mantra in Belém is shifting from what to who and how. Cities, regions and communities are now at the forefront as implementation becomes the central focus. The summit’s ‘Global Mutirão’ theme – a Brazilian term meaning communal effort – seeks to bring civil society, businesses and local communities directly into the climate process, signalling a wider push to broaden participation beyond national delegations.
On day 2, for instance, COP30 spotlighted initiatives such as the ‘Beat the Heat’ programme, which aims to protect 3.5 billion people across 185 cities from escalating climate-related risks.
This shift reflects a growing acknowledgement that subnational actors are often closer to both the impacts of climate change and the solutions. Local governments frequently move faster than national ones, whether in deploying clean energy, adapting infrastructure or protecting vulnerable populations. Empowering them with access to finance, technical capacity and real decision-making authority could help break the long-standing logjam of slow national politics. But only if it comes with sustained resources and genuine autonomy.
For many observers, democratising COP also means addressing barriers that keep grassroots groups, indigenous communities and youth organisations on the margins. High accreditation costs and limited speaking opportunities continue to restrict participation. Whether COP30 becomes a turning point for more inclusive climate governance will depend on how effectively these structural obstacles are dismantled.
As the world began to gather for COP30 in Belém, Brazil last week, the stakes could not have been higher. The two-week summit convenes against a backdrop of an intensifying climate crisis and mounting frustration over the slow pace of progress.
The first week opened dramatically, marked by heavy rain and clashes between security guards and protesters who stormed the conference centre late on Tuesday. Both indigenous and non-indigenous communities in Brazil have voiced anger over the vast resources being channelled into hosting the event when, they argue, funds are urgently needed for education, healthcare and forest protection.
A conspicuous lack of participation by heads of state has dampened early optimism. Fewer than 60 leaders registered for COP30, down from more than 80 at COP29 in Baku and over 150 in Dubai the previous year. That said, analysis by Carbon Brief and the UNFCCC shows that several countries have sent record-high delegations, with Brazil fielding the largest. Many emerging economies have expanded their presence, reflecting both their growing vulnerability to climate impacts and their increasing influence in negotiations.
