Today, in the Brazilian city of Belém, the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) begins. And it’s off to a sour start.
Every year, commentators ask what difference COP will make, especially given the thousands of flights polluting the skies en route to the world’s largest climate gathering. But this year those questions have grown louder as most measures of climate change show the situation is getting far worse.
The UN has warned it is now “virtually impossible” to meet the international target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Carbon dioxide levels are rising at their fastest rate on record, according to the World Meteorological Organization, bringing with them catastrophic ecological and economic consequences. New NASA satellites show that extreme weather events are now occurring at double the intensity of the average recorded between 2003 and 2020.
Even in the run up to COP30, there have been signs that confidence in the process is wavering. Just last month, two-thirds of the 195 nations that signed the Paris Agreement failed to meet a key deadline to release updated climate plans, fuelling fears that climate action is slipping down global agendas.
Each summit promises to be a turning point. Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has promised this year will be the “best COP yet.” Yet fewer than 60 heads of state have reportedly registered to attend, down from more than 80 at COP29 in Baku and from more than 150 in Dubai the year before. Missing from the line-up are the leaders of four of the world’s five most-polluting economies – China, the United States, India and Russia, with only the leader of the European Union showing up.
For many observers, the event has drifted far from its original purpose. Last year, during COP29, more than 20 former climate experts issued an open letter declaring that “the COP is no longer fit for purpose.” They argued its sprawling structure and consensus-driven approach cannot deliver the exponential change the crisis demands.
Others have gone further, suggesting COP has become a stage for political theatre rather than genuine collaboration – a platform used by leaders to brandish their green credentials or advance their own geopolitical narratives. Papua New Guinea’s prime minister, James Marape, summed up frustrations regarding political posturing last week, calling the event “long on talk, short on action.”
This year’s summit carries further controversy due to its location. Hosting COP30 on the outskirts of the Amazon rainforest was a strategic move by Brazil to showcase its environmental leadership. The government’s new Tropical Forests Forever Facility aims to raise $125bn (£95bn) to help local communities protect existing forest areas. Yet the move is marred by contradiction: just weeks before the conference, state-run oil company Petrobras received government approval for exploratory drilling near the rainforest.
It’s an irony not lost on critics and it is already dividing attendees before COP discussions have really begun. The UK has announced it will not commit public funds to Brazil’s flagship rainforest protection plan.
Meanwhile, the arrival of around 50,000 delegates has sent accommodation prices in Belém skyrocketing, prompting concerns that representatives from poorer nations are being priced out of climate discussions altogether. With a shortage of traditional hotel rooms, organisers have scrambled to find alternative accommodation in private homes, universities and schools. In an absurd turn of events, two fuel-guzzling cruise ships have been docked 20 kilometres from the conference venue to host delegates gathered to discuss how to save the planet.
To make matters worse, there remains a troubling lack of clarity about what COP30 will actually do. Beyond rhetoric and pledges, there is little sign of binding agreements or mechanisms for accountability.
It is a telling sign that the Brazilian hosts have urged countries to ditch plans to make new promises and instead fulfil the hundreds of pledges already made towards sustainable finance solutions and efforts to curb carbon emissions. One of those measures – a COP26 deal to reduce global methane emissions by at least 30% from 2020 levels by 2030 – is way off track. Under current trajectories, total human-made methane emissions are projected to increase, not decrease, by 2030.
The world’s largest climate conference has, in many ways, become a symbol of its own contradictions: a spectacle of sustainable progress that often generates more headlines than hard commitments. Thirty years on, the question is no longer just whether COP can deliver progress – but whether it has become part of the problem.
Today, in the Brazilian city of Belém, the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) begins. And it's off to a sour start.
Every year, commentators ask what difference COP will make, especially given the thousands of flights polluting the skies en route to the world’s largest climate gathering. But this year those questions have grown louder as most measures of climate change show the situation is getting far worse.
The UN has warned it is now “virtually impossible” to meet the international target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Carbon dioxide levels are rising at their fastest rate on record, according to the World Meteorological Organization, bringing with them catastrophic ecological and economic consequences. New NASA satellites show that extreme weather events are now occurring at double the intensity of the average recorded between 2003 and 2020.
